Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Can We At Least Agree That This Year Isn't As Warm As Past Years?
no. it's cold. to say that it's cooling would imply a long term trend, which is not indicated by the data. quite the reverse, actually. seriously, I just did a linear regression on it, a weak correlation to be sure, but it's there. there is a positive, warming trend of 0.01 degrees per year, with an error of 0.005 degrees per year. I'm no statistician, but if I recall correctly, that establishes at the 95% confidence level that there really is warming. I'm sure a real climate scientist would do a more sophisticated ysis. and this is the data that YOU recommend we use? what are you trying to prove here exactly? other years it has been hot... that would not indicate warming, either. long term trends are what counts... even ten years may not be long enough. climate scientists seem to be saying that one should look at the last 50 years or so to best see the effect of global warming.
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